There was uncertainty once again this week about Oil supplies from Kazakhstan. This time, however, it was not about production levels, which are significantly higher than those agreed under the OPEC+ agreement, but about Oil exports. These are largely handled via a Russian terminal on the Black Sea, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Support for Oil prices is likely to ease

"The Reuters news agency reported, citing two industry sources, that new regulatory requirements in Russia meant that foreign Oil tankers would not be allowed to load cargo in Russian Black Sea ports on a temporary basis. This also affected Kazakh Oil transported via a pipeline to the Black Sea. The loading plans envisage export volumes of the equivalent of 1.66 million barrels per day. However, according to four industry sources, the loading of ships has now resumed after the necessary approval was granted by the Russian intelligence service FSB."

"Prior to this, there had been a delay of several days in loading Oil tankers at the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. This was triggered by necessary checks after chloride contamination was detected in some supplies. Oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which is transported via a pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the port, was affected. Exports are expected to total 17.3 million barrels in both July and August, according to Reuters, citing loading schedules."

"This corresponds to a daily volume of 560,000 barrels. During the period in question, five Oil tankers were scheduled for loading. However, loading has been running according to schedule again since Wednesday. Delays in deliveries from the Russian terminal on the Black Sea and the Turkish port on the Mediterranean are likely to have contributed to the Brent Oil price rising back towards $70. Now that exports are back to normal, support for prices is likely to ease."