EUR/USD weakens below 1.2000 amid rebound in US Dollar, all eyes on Fed rate decision

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The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.1990, snapping the four-day winning streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The major pair retraces from a five-year high amid renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.

EUR/USD softens to around 1.1990 in Wednesday’s early European session.
Concerns over the Fed’s independence could drag the US dollar lower.
Fed interest rate decision will take center stage on Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his pick for the new Fed Chair soon, adding that interest rates will fall with the US central bank under new leadership. Traders worry that the Fed would lose its independence after the appointment of a Trump candidate as Fed Chairman. This, in turn, could weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the major pair.

Markets are currently anticipating the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged in the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Traders will closely monitor the press conference for any guidance regarding future rate cuts.

On the Euro’s front, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are in no hurry to adjust interest rates as inflation is hovering near the target. Officials did not discuss raising or cutting rates at the December meeting, emphasizing a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. Expectations for further rate reductions this year have largely vanished due to a mixed economic picture.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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