Forex Today: US Dollar surges as traders await PCE inflation data

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 101.60 on Wednesday, at a one-year high as markets looked ahead to Thursday’s United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.

Here is what you need to know for Thursday, June 25:

The PCE for May arrives at 8:30am EST on Thursday and is expected to give the market more insight into whether rising Oil prices due to the US and Israel's war with Iran has filtered through to core inflation. Expect US Treasury yields to be volatile following the release.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.24%	0.34%	0.16%	0.20%	0.42%	0.52%	0.37%
EUR	-0.24%		0.10%	-0.09%	-0.05%	0.18%	0.26%	0.14%
GBP	-0.34%	-0.10%		-0.19%	-0.17%	0.08%	0.15%	0.03%
JPY	-0.16%	0.09%	0.19%		0.04%	0.25%	0.35%	0.20%
CAD	-0.20%	0.05%	0.17%	-0.04%		0.22%	0.29%	0.19%
AUD	-0.42%	-0.18%	-0.08%	-0.25%	-0.22%		0.07%	-0.06%
NZD	-0.52%	-0.26%	-0.15%	-0.35%	-0.29%	-0.07%		-0.12%
CHF	-0.37%	-0.14%	-0.03%	-0.20%	-0.19%	0.06%	0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD fell toward a one-year low near the 1.1360 price level but climbed out of the session's low near 1.1325. The Euro struggled to gain traction despite hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) commentary. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said that, “more hiking is needed” to bring inflation back to 2%, adding that rates are not yet restrictive and that the ceasefire is not a signal for the ECB to ease its vigilance.

GBP/USD weakened and is now close to a one-year low of 1.3160 as Sterling came under heavy pressure from political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) and softer activity data. The S&P Global Flash UK Composite PMI on Tuesday slipped to 49.4 in June from 49.7, while the Services PMI fell to 48.7, marking a 41-month low.

USD/JPY rose to 161.80 as the Greenback benefits from cautious Fed expectations, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) is still in intervention levels.

AUD/USD sloped below the 0.6890 level after Australia’s annual inflation eased to 4.0% in May from 4.2% in April, below expectations of 4.4%. However, Trimmed Mean Inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, suggesting sticky underlying price pressure. Traders will also watch Australia’s upcoming employment data for fresh clues on the RBA’s policy outlook.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil extended its decline toward a three-month low of 70.00 as easing tensions in the Middle East and resumed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reduced supply-risk premiums.

Gold slipped below the $4,000 mark, now trading at $3,980, as a stronger US Dollar and expectations of higher-for-longer Fed rates reduced demand for the non-yielding metal. However, geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand could limit deeper losses.

What's next in the docket:

Thursday, June 25:

US PCE
US GDP
US Initial Jobless Claims
Australian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change

Friday, June 26:

Tokyo CPI
Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

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