GBP/USD Price Forecast: Wobbles around 1.3360 amid uncertainty over US-Iran ceasefire

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The GBP/USD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3360 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The Cable consolidates as investors await clarity on whether Iran intends to pursue a ceasefire, as claimed several times by United States (US) President Donald Trump.

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3360 as investors seek clarity on Trump’s claims that Iran wants deal badly.
Iran dismisses its involvement in direct talks with the US regarding an end to the conflict.
Tehran warns of a prolonged war until its conditions are met.

On late Wednesday, US President Trump stated in a fundraiser event that Iran wants deal badly, but they are afraid to do so publicly amid fears that will be killed by their own people or by the US military, Associated Press (AP) reported.

They are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly, but they’re afraid to say it because they figure they’ll be killed by their own people,” Trump said, and added, “They’re also afraid they’ll be killed by us."

Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has clarified that the government has not engaged in ceasefire talks with the US and have no plans of any negotiation. An Iranian state TV has also reported that Tehran “would end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met”, and until then would continue fighting across the region, The Guardian reported.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades calmly near 99.65 as investors remain on the edge.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD trades almost flat at around 1.3360 as of writing. The near-term bias is bearish as recent lower highs reinforce the downside tone. The spot trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has flattened after a prior decline and now caps the upside around 1.34.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 zone, signaling a pause in the bearish momentum, while the bearish bias remaining intact.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near 1.3390, followed by the March 23 high around 1.3480, where recent supply halted rebounds. A daily close above that level would ease the bearish pressure and open the way toward the mid-1.35 region. On the downside, immediate support aligns with Monday's low at 1.3257, with a break exposing the next bearish target at 1.3220. A drop through 1.3220 would confirm a stronger downward extension toward the 1.31 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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