ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Gold has broken below $4,100/oz, extending a record ten-session decline as higher real yields and a firmer Dollar offset geopolitical support. They stress that Gold’s path will hinge on inflation, monetary policy expectations and real interest rates rather than headlines alone.

Record losing streak despite geopolitical tensions

"Gold extended its decline for a tenth consecutive session – its longest losing streak on record – with spot prices down more than 1% this morning."

The conflict has added to inflationary risks, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer, a headwind for non‑yielding assets such as gold.

"Gold has now fallen every week since the conflict began on 28 February, as elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks are increasingly being offset by higher real yields and a firmer dollar."

"The recent weakness has also been exacerbated by forced selling, as investors liquidate gold positions to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios rather than a deterioration in gold’s longer‑term fundamentals."

"Near-term, risks for gold have increased. Ultimately, gold’s direction will depend less on geopolitical headlines alone and more on how those events shape inflation, monetary policy expectations and real interest rates."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)