There have been numerous indications recently that refineries in India would purchase less Russian Oil due to US sanctions. However, this is not yet reflected in the figures. On the contrary, India's Oil imports from Russia are likely to reach a five-month high of 1.86 million barrels per day in November, according to preliminary data from Kpler, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

US sanctions expected to slash India’s Russian Oil purchases in December

"This is probably due to front-loading of purchases before the US sanctions against the two largest Russian Oil companies came into force on November 21. A sharp decline in Oil deliveries from Russia is therefore expected in December. Trading and refinery sources assume that these are likely to fall to their lowest level in at least three years in December. According to a source quoted by Reuters, imports are likely to be only 600-650 thousand barrels per day in the coming month."

"Russia apparently hopes to compensate for India's lower purchase volumes with higher deliveries to China. During a visit to Beijing, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak spoke of the possibility of higher Oil exports via pipelines and by sea. However, some Chinese refineries have also announced that they intend to buy less Russian Oil due to US sanctions."

"A peace agreement in Ukraine and the accompanied lifting of US sanctions would bring significant relief for Russian Oil exports. Oil prices therefore recently reacted with losses as soon as an end to the war in Ukraine was considered more likely."