OCBC’s FX Christopher Wong describes USD/JPY as a two-way trade after suspected Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention capped gains near 160. He notes bearish daily momentum but says fundamentals are not decisively Japanese Yen (JPY)-positive, with higher Oil prices still a drag. The pair is expected to stay choppy, driven by Oil swings, with support from 155.40 and resistance up to 158.70.

Intervention risk tempers upside bias

"USD/JPY traded near recent lows last week. Price action remains a two-way trade after recent suspected MoF intervention helped cap upside near the 160-handle."

"While intervention risk may keep JPY shorts more cautious, the fundamental backdrop is not yet decisively JPY-positive. Higher oil prices remain a terms-of-trade drag on JPY. "

"Near term, USD/JPY may stay choppy, driven by swings in oil prices. Pair was last at 156.70 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI was flat. 2-way trades likely to continue."

"Support at 155.40 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 154.15/30 (200 DMA, 76.4% fibo). Resistance at 157.40 (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 158.70 levels (23.6% fibo, 21, 50 DMAs)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)