• USD/JPY edges slightly lower amid renewed Japan intervention caution.
• Concerns over Japan’s fiscal position restrain the currency’s rebound.
• The US Dollar steadies ahead of key US data releases.

USD/JPY trades around 156.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday, down 0.20% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to attract meaningful buying interest. While the prospect of intervention by Japanese authorities limits downward pressure on the currency, several fundamental factors continue to weigh on the Yen’s broader outlook.

Recent remarks from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who warned that the government would take “appropriate action” against excessive market volatility, reinforced market vigilance. Comments from Takuji Aida, a member of a key government panel, also explicitly raised the possibility of intervening to counter the negative economic impact of a weak JPY. This increasingly forceful rhetoric is helping to slow USD/JPY’s rise in the near term.

However, concerns over Japan’s fiscal situation remain a major drag. The approval of a massive ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package, the largest since the COVID-19 era, has intensified doubts about the sustainability of public debt, pushing super-long Japanese government bond yields to record highs.

Meanwhile, the contraction of Japan’s economy in the third quarter increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delays further policy tightening, even as Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the door open for a December rate hike and highlighted that Japanese Yen weakness continues to fuel inflationary pressures. Inflation has remained above the 2% target for more than three years.

In the United States (US), the US Dollar (USD) edges slightly lower as markets continue to price in further monetary easing in December. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller strengthened the case for a rate cut next month, noting that labor market conditions appear weak enough to justify further easing. His comments follow those of New York Fed President John Williams, who recently described the current policy stance as only “modestly restrictive”. Markets now assign more than an 80% chance to a rate cut at the December meeting.

While this shift in expectations limits the US Dollar’s ability to extend its recent rally, the broader backdrop still favors USD/JPY upside, particularly if the BoJ remains cautious and rate differentials continue to support the Greenback.

Investors now turn their attention to the upcoming releases of the Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and additional US housing and manufacturing indicators. These data points could revive volatility in USD/JPY and help shape the pair’s direction ahead of the next Federal Reserve communications.