USD/JPY Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near two-week low, below 23.6% Fibo. at 161.00
Ni Haresh Menghani
Na-update: 3 Jul 2026
Sikat na Artikulo
The USD/JPY pair turns lower for the second straight day following an intraday uptick to mid-161.00s and drops to a more than two-week low during the first half of the European session on Friday.
- USD/JPY drifts lower for the second day, though it finds support near the 200-SMA on H4.
- Acceptance below 23.6% Fibo. favor bears and back the case for a further depreciation.
- Any meaningful recovery attempts are more likely to be sold into and remain capped.
The USD/JPY pair turns lower for the second straight day following an intraday uptick to mid-161.00s and drops to a more than two-week low during the first half of the European session on Friday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade just below the 161.00 mark, down over 0.15% for the day.
From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June rally suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. However, the intraday downfall finds some support near the 160.50-160.45 region, representing the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said area should lend nearby trend support and keep the near-term tone broadly neutral.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 33 indicates lingering weak momentum after dipping toward oversold territory, in line with a consolidative rather than aggressively bearish setup. Any further recovery, however, could face initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibo. level. A sustained break above this hurdle would be needed to ease immediate pressure and open the door for a further recovery towards the 161.75-161.80 area en route to 162.00.
On the downside, first support aligns with the 200-period EMA at 160.57, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 159.86. A convincing break through these layers should pave the way for an extension of the USD/JPY pair’s retracement slide from a four-decade high. The subsequent fall would expose the lower retracement supports at 158.93 and 158.00, with deeper Fibonacci levels at 156.68 and 154.99 acting as broader structural cushions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.57% | -1.19% | -0.55% | -0.10% | -0.78% | -1.23% | -0.99% | |
| EUR | 0.57% | -0.68% | 0.02% | 0.44% | -0.24% | -0.73% | -0.48% | |
| GBP | 1.19% | 0.68% | 0.73% | 1.13% | 0.42% | -0.05% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.55% | -0.02% | -0.73% | 0.45% | -0.24% | -0.60% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.44% | -1.13% | -0.45% | -0.69% | -1.04% | -0.82% | |
| AUD | 0.78% | 0.24% | -0.42% | 0.24% | 0.69% | -0.48% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | 1.23% | 0.73% | 0.05% | 0.60% | 1.04% | 0.48% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.99% | 0.48% | -0.21% | 0.47% | 0.82% | 0.22% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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