• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded above $100 per barrel for most of Monday's session, closing near the flat line after a volatile day of headline-driven swings.
• President Trump threatened to destroy Iran's Oil wells, power plants, and Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened and a peace deal is not reached.
• Yemen's Houthis launched missiles at Israel over the weekend, marking their first direct involvement in the US-Iran conflict and adding a fresh layer of supply-route risk.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell spoke at Harvard as markets brace for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report amid elevated stagflation fears.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil held above the $100 per barrel mark on Monday, trading in a wide intraday range that saw prices spike toward session highs near $101 before a sharp, short-lived dip back below $98. The benchmark recovered swiftly to climb around 1.15% at the halfway point of the American market session. Monday highlights just how headline-sensitive the Crude Oil market has become five weeks into the US-Iran conflict, with every Trump post and Tehran denial capable of moving prices several dollars in minutes. Brent Crude also pushed higher, trading above $115.

Trump ratchets up the rhetoric on Iran

Monday's price action was largely driven by a flurry of social media posts from President Trump. In an early-morning Truth Social post, Trump claimed the US is in "serious discussions" with what he described as a new and more reasonable regime in Tehran, hinting at progress on a deal to end hostilities. The post initially weighed on prices as traders briefly priced in de-escalation. However, the tone shifted dramatically when Trump followed up by threatening to "completely obliterate" Iran's electric generating plants, Oil wells, and the strategically critical Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened. Tehran flatly denied any negotiations are taking place, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating no talks have happened with the US and none are planned. The contradiction between Washington and Tehran's accounts of the diplomatic process has become a recurring feature of this conflict, and it keeps Oil volatility elevated.

Houthis enter the fray, widening the conflict footprint

Over the weekend, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement launched missiles at Israel, marking the group's first direct involvement in the broader US-Iran war. The escalation raises the risk of disruption through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. Societe Generale's global head of commodities research flagged the potential for further disruption through this waterway as a factor that could push Oil prices even higher. Combined with the ongoing de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles roughly 21% of global Oil consumption, the widening of the conflict has left traders staring at a supply map with shrinking safe passage options. Goldman Sachs estimates the current geopolitical risk premium baked into crude prices sits between $14 and $18 per barrel.

The $100 level and the war premium question

WTI's sustained hold above $100, a level it first breached last week for the first time since 2022, reflects what analysts describe as a structurally supported floor. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to most commercial traffic since early March, removing an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day from normal flow. Iraq's force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields has further tightened supply, while OPEC+ has signaled no output increases before the third quarter of 2026. A coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency strategic reserves has done little more than cap the upside, failing to reverse the underlying deficit. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent above $95 per barrel in the near term, declining toward $80 by the third quarter and around $70 by year-end, but only if the conflict resolves and Hormuz reopens. That is a very large "if" at this point. WTI has surged roughly 48% in March alone, its strongest monthly performance since 2020.

Powell navigates the stagflation tightrope

Fed Chair Powell spoke to a Harvard economics class on Monday, with his remarks closely watched for any shift in tone on the central bank's inflation-versus-growth dilemma. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its March 18 meeting and signaled just one rate cut for 2026 in its dot plot. Powell has previously acknowledged that the Oil price shock is complicating the policy outlook, noting that inflation progress has been slower than hoped. CME FedWatch pricing currently shows no rate cuts expected for the remainder of 2026, with an 80% probability of another hold in April. The dual-mandate tension is acute: downside risks to the labor market argue for cuts, while upside risks to inflation from the energy shock argue for standing pat. Friday's NFP report will be the next critical data point, with a February miss of just 92K jobs still fresh in traders' minds.

Looking ahead: April 6 deadline looms large

The single most important date on the Oil market's calendar is now April 6. That is the deadline Trump set for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after extending an earlier window by 10 days. The binary nature of the outcome makes this a high-risk event for crude positioning. A confirmed diplomatic breakthrough could rapidly deflate the war premium, with some analysts pointing to a potential drop toward the mid-$80s. An escalation, particularly any move on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's Oil exports, could send WTI surging toward $115 or higher. Goldman Sachs has warned that if Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, Brent could ultimately test its 2008 all-time high near $147. For now, the market remains caught between Trump's oscillating signals of diplomacy and destruction, with no clear resolution in sight. Wednesday's EIA weekly crude inventory report will offer a near-term trading catalyst, with a draw of around 1.2 million barrels expected against last week's build.

WTI 5-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $100.16. Near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 200-period exponential moving average near $98.80, keeping the short-term uptrend structure intact despite intraday swings. The Stochastic RSI has rebounded from oversold territory toward the upper half of its range, indicating recovering upside momentum after the earlier pullback from the $100.60 area, and suggesting buyers are gradually regaining control while the moving average continues to provide dynamic support beneath spot.

Immediate resistance emerges at the recent intraday high around $100.60, which capped the last advance and marks the first level bulls must clear to extend the recovery. A break above this barrier would open the way toward the psychological $101.00 region as the next upside objective. On the downside, initial support aligns with $99.50, where price repeatedly stabilized during the latest consolidation, followed by the $98.80 area close to the 200-period EMA, which serves as a deeper support zone that should define the boundary of the current bullish bias if tested.

In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $100.06. The near-term bias is bullish as price accelerates above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming an established uptrend rather than a short-lived spike. The widening gap between the faster and slower averages signals strengthening trend momentum, even as Stochastic RSI retreats from overbought territory, indicating a cooling of upside pressure rather than a completed top. Unless the pullback deepens enough to challenge the rising 50-day average, dips are likely to be treated as corrective within the broader advance.

Immediate support emerges near $99.00, the prior close just below spot, with a deeper floor aligning around the $95.00–$96.00 region where recent consolidation developed above the moving average cluster. A sustained break beneath that area would expose downside towards the mid-$90.00s and weaken the current bullish structure. On the upside, the psychological $100.00 handle now acts as an initial pivot, with a clear daily close above it opening the way toward the $103.00–$105.00 region as the next resistance band. A decisive rejection from above $100.00 would signal a pause in the trend, but only a drop through layered support would negate the bullish daily bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)