AUD/USD consolidates around mid-0.6500s, just below two-week top set on Friday

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The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note in reaction to unimpressive China's official PMIs released over the weekend, though the downside remains cushioned.

AUD/USD consolidates amid China’s disappointing official PMIs released over the weekend.
The divergent Fed-RBA policy expectations lend support to spot prices and favor bullish traders.
Friday’s breakout through the 100-day SMA backs the case for a further near-term appreciation.

The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note in reaction to unimpressive China's official PMIs released over the weekend, though the downside remains cushioned. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-0.6500s, near a two-week top touched on Friday, and seem poised to build on the recent strong move up witnessed over the past week or so.

The National Bureau of Statistics' survey showed on Sunday that China's official Manufacturing PMI remained below the 50.0 mark, in the contraction territory, for the eighth month in November. Adding to this, China's Non-Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 in the previous month to 49.5, marking the lowest reading since December 2022 and the first contraction in nearly three years.

The immediate market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived amid easing trade tensions and the recent government measures announced to boost consumption in the world's second-largest economy. This, along with diminishing odds for more policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid a weaker US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a two-week low amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs again this month. Apart from this, the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets undermines the safe-haven buck and should benefit the riskier AUD/USD pair.

Even from a technical perspective, Friday's breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for this week's important US macro releases, scheduled at the start of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today.

Economic Indicator

NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI

The NBS Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s non-manufacturing sector, namely services and construction.The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at services and construction companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers and real-estate is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY.

Why it matters to traders?

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) publishes the non-manufacturing PMI on a monthly basis. The gauge highlights the performance of China’s service sector, which has a significant impact on the global FX market, given the size of the Chinese economy. An expansion in the Chinese service sector activity points to signs of economic improvement and vice-versa.

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