FX Today: Cautious optimism ahead of US employment data

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.27%	0.30%	0.27%	0.23%	-0.30%	0.13%	0.49%
EUR	-0.27%		0.03%	-0.02%	-0.03%	-0.57%	-0.14%	0.22%
GBP	-0.30%	-0.03%		-0.04%	-0.06%	-0.58%	-0.16%	0.19%
JPY	-0.27%	0.02%	0.04%		-0.01%	-0.55%	-0.12%	0.24%
CAD	-0.23%	0.03%	0.06%	0.01%		-0.54%	-0.10%	0.25%
AUD	0.30%	0.57%	0.58%	0.55%	0.54%		0.44%	0.79%
NZD	-0.13%	0.14%	0.16%	0.12%	0.10%	-0.44%		0.35%
CHF	-0.49%	-0.22%	-0.19%	-0.24%	-0.25%	-0.79%	-0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Speculative interest seems to have shrugged off geopolitical tensions related to the United States (US) military action in Venezuela. On that front, Former President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared before the court and claimed they are not guilty. Maduro said he is still the President of Venezuela, and that he is a war prisoner.

Crude oil prices remained stable, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil changing hands a few cents under $58.00.

Gold maintained its bullish poise despite the better market sentiment, trading in the $4,480 region ahead of the US close.

The EUR/USD pair pierced the 1.1700 threshold and trades nearby, despite local economies continuing to expand in December, according to the latest Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) surveys.

GBP/USD surged towards 1.3570, a multi-week high at the beginning of the day, but retreated and hovers around 1.3500. The UK HCOB Composite PMI printed at 51.4, down from the previous 52.1.

The USD/JPY pair trades around 156.70 heading into the Asian opening, while USD/CAD stands around 1.3800. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the Greenback, with AUD/USD trading well above 0.6700.

The upcoming Asian session will bring the release of the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation in the country, as measured by the CPI, is forecast to rise by 3.7% YoY in November, following the 3.8% posted in October.

Later in the day, Germany will publish November Retail Sales, while the US will release the December ADP Employment Change report and November JOLTS Job Openings.

Economic Indicator

ADP Employment Change

The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

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