USD/CAD consolidates below mid-1.3700s; looks to Canadian jobs data for fresh impetus

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The USD/CAD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a narrow range, below mid-1.3700s during the Asian session on Friday. Meanwhile, spot prices remain close to a one-week low touched the previous day and seem poised to register weekly losses amid a bearish US Dollar (USD).

USD/CAD lacks any firm intraday direction amid mixed fundamental cues.
Rising September Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD and cap spot prices.
Bearish Oil prices and dovish BoC cap the CAD ahead of the key jobs data.

Traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs in September following the release of a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July. Moreover, the current market pricing indicates the possibility of at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the US central bank by the year-end. This has been a key factor behind the recent USD downfall witnessed over the past week or so, which continues to act as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices languish near a two-month low amid concerns that higher US tariffs would hamper the global economy and dent fuel demand. This, along with persistent trade-related uncertainties, seems to undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and supports the USD/CAD pair. In fact, US President Donald Trump last week lifted the tariff rate on Canada from 25% to 35%. Adding to this, dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations should cap the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

The BoC last week opened the door for further policy easing, with investors pricing in the possibility of a rate cut next month. This, in turn, warrants some caution before placing fresh bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the Canadian monthly employment details for cues about the BoC policy outlook. The crucial data, along with Oil price dynamics, should provide some meaningful impetus to the currency pair heading into the weekend.

Economic Indicator

Net Change in Employment

The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.

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