EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near 181.00; break below 100-day SMA awaited

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The EUR/JPY cross extends this week's sharp retracement slide from the 186.25 region for the fourth straight day and drops to over a two-month low during the Asian session on Thursday.

EUR/JPY attracts heavy selling for the fourth straight day amid notable JPY strength.
The overnight breakdown below key technical support backs the case for further losses.
A sustained strength above the 50-day SMA would negate the near-term negative bias.

The EUR/JPY cross extends this week's sharp retracement slide from the 186.25 region for the fourth straight day and drops to over a two-month low during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 181.00 mark, down nearly 0.50% for the day, and seem vulnerable to weakening further.

The overnight breakdown below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 183.00 strong horizontal support was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. The downfall, however, stalls just above the 100-day SMA, currently pegged at 180.75, which should now act as a key pivotal point amid strong follow-through buying around the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned more negative, implying the MACD line sits beneath the Signal line with momentum hovering around the zero mark. The RSI at 36 indicates weakening momentum without oversold conditions. Hence, a break beneath the 100-day SMA support would warn of a deeper retracement slide.

Confirmation would come from the MACD histogram contracting toward zero after its recent negative expansion. An RSI recovery through 50 would strengthen the bullish case, whereas a slide toward 30 would keep sellers in control. That said, a daily close back above the 50-day SMA would revive upside momentum for the EUR/JPY cross.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.46%	-0.29%	-3.23%	-0.72%	-1.73%	-0.69%	-0.79%
EUR	0.46%		0.18%	-2.84%	-0.26%	-1.28%	-0.23%	-0.33%
GBP	0.29%	-0.18%		-2.70%	-0.44%	-1.45%	-0.41%	-0.51%
JPY	3.23%	2.84%	2.70%		2.64%	1.60%	2.69%	2.46%
CAD	0.72%	0.26%	0.44%	-2.64%		-0.91%	0.05%	-0.07%
AUD	1.73%	1.28%	1.45%	-1.60%	0.91%		1.06%	0.97%
NZD	0.69%	0.23%	0.41%	-2.69%	-0.05%	-1.06%		-0.10%
CHF	0.79%	0.33%	0.51%	-2.46%	0.07%	-0.97%	0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).