ING’s Romania team highlights that weaker-than-expected GDP and a sharp 4Q25 contraction introduce downside risks to inflation and could prompt the National Bank of Romania to front-load its easing cycle. They still expect the first rate cut in May 2026 and a total of 100bp of easing, while fiscal consolidation pressure may be tempered by slower growth.

Weaker data tilt NBR toward easing

"Today’s weaker-than-expected GDP figure introduces clear downside risks to the inflation outlook and could encourage the National Bank of Romania to front-load its easing cycle."

"At the same time, the sharp economic slowdown may increase the pressure on the government to temper the pace of fiscal consolidation, given the scale of the setback."

"We continue to expect the NBR to deliver its first rate cut in May 2026, with a total of 100bp of easing over the course of the year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)