• EUR/CAD declines toward 1.6250 following the release of mixed Canadian CPI figures.
• The ECB maintains a cautious stance amid the risk of slowing inflation.
• The resumption of operations at Russia’s Novorossiysk port weighs on the Canadian Dollar by easing pressure on Oil markets.

EUR/CAD trades lower on Monday around 1.6250 at the time of writing, down 0.30% on the day, after Canada published a set of mixed inflation data for October. Market reaction remains contained, as headline inflation continues to cool while underlying price pressures remain firm, complicating the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC).

In Canada, annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 2.2%, slightly above the 2.1% expected but down from 2.4% in September. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2%, matching expectations. Disinflation was driven primarily by a 9.4% drop in gasoline prices and softer grocery inflation, while services remained elevated due to higher insurance premiums, property taxes and a rebound in mobile service prices.

However, the core inflation measure preferred by the Bank of Canada showed little sign of easing. Core CPI increased 0.6% on the month after a 0.2% gain in September, and edged up to 2.9% YoY. This persistence of underlying price pressure limits the central bank’s room to maneuver, especially after policymakers signaled that the latest rate cut could mark the end of the easing cycle if inflation failed to slow more clearly.

The resumption of Oil loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, after a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian strike, has helped ease supply concerns in the Oil market. This normalization limits the Canadian Dollar upside, which remains closely tied to Oil prices given Canada’s status as a major exporter.

In Europe, the Euro receives limited support from recent comments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged period of monetary stability.

In this environment, the combination of mixed Canadian inflation data, the ECB’s cautious stance and Oil market developments contributes to the downward bias in EUR/CAD.