EUR/USD falls to near 1.1600 due to fading Fed rate cut bets

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EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.1610 during the Asian hours on Monday.

EUR/USD depreciates as the US Dollar gains on cautious Fedspeak.
CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
ECB’s Olli Rehn warned that the risk of slowing inflation should not be overlooked.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.1610 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from cautious remarks given by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, diminishing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in December.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid said on Friday that monetary policy should “lean against demand growth,” adding that current Fed policy is “modestly restrictive,” which he believes is appropriate.

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 46% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from the 67% probability that markets priced a week ago.

The Greenback also gained ground as market sentiment improved after the US government reopened following US President Donald Trump's signing of a funding bill into law last week, ending the longest shutdown in US history, which lasted 43 days. Federal employees were directed to return to work on Thursday.

Bloomberg reported on Saturday that European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Olli Rehn cautioned that the risk of slowing inflation should not be overlooked, though upside risks remain. Rehn noted that the euro-area economy is holding up despite disruptions from the Trump administration’s tariff policies, with growth slow but steady. He also emphasized the need for strong bank buffers and a vigilant policy stance.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.