GBP/USD remains close to near 1.3450 ahead of Q2 UK GDP data

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GBP/USD moves little ahead of the release of UK Gross Domestic Product data on Tuesday.
Traders adopt caution as the US government nears a potential funding freeze and shutdown.
President Trump has warned that failure by Congress to pass a funding bill could lead to widespread federal job cuts.

GBP/USD stays silent after two days of gains, trading around 1.3440 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair moves little ahead of the release of the United Kingdom’s (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to release Q2 UK GDP data at 06:00 GMT, with markets expecting steady growth of 0.3% quarter-over-quarter and 1.2% year-over-year.

The pair shows limited movement as traders exercise caution amid concerns that this week’s US jobs report may be delayed, with the government approaching a potential funding freeze and shutdown. Traders await the September Nonfarm Payrolls report for insights into the labor market, alongside data on job openings, private payrolls, and the ISM manufacturing PMI."

US President Donald Trump has warned of mass federal job cuts if Congress fails to pass a funding bill, effectively putting his own government at risk and threatening further disruptions to federal operations.

Market uncertainty increases as President Trump shared plans to impose a 100% tariff on imports of branded or patented pharmaceutical products from October 1, unless a pharmaceutical company is building a manufacturing plant in the US. Trump also unveiled tariffs of 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities and 25% on trucks.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.