Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $49.50 as Fed rate cut likelihood fades

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Silver price declines as Fed rate cut odds decrease following cautious Fedspeak.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests pricing in a 43% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized that the Fed should move “slowly” on any further rate cuts.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around $49.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The non-interest-bearing Silver struggles amid declining US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets for December. Traders will closely monitor Thursday’s September jobs report for signals on US economic health, while Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s meeting minutes is expected to offer further rate guidance.

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 43% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 62% probability that markets priced a week ago.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted Monday that risks to the labor market now outweigh upside risks to inflation, while stressing that the Fed should proceed “slowly” with any additional rate reductions. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank should cut the interest rates when policymakers meet in December. Waller added that he’s grown concerned over the labor market and the sharp slowdown in hiring.

The downside of the precious metal could be restrained supply concerns, particularly as the prospect of US tariffs looms. The US Department of the Interior last week designated Silver, Copper, and metallurgical Coal as “critical minerals,” citing their strategic economic and national security roles. The classification also clears the path for potential Section 232 probes and related trade measures, mirroring earlier actions taken on Copper.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.