The US Energy Information Administration forecasts US Crude production to remain near 13.6 million bpd in 2026, with a gradual decline next year due to weaker drilling activity amid low Oil prices. While oversupply persists at roughly 2.8 million bpd this year, rising demand and falling US output are expected to gradually reduce the global surplus, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Oversupply to ease with falling US production, rising demand

"According to forecasts by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Crude Oil production is expected to remain at an annual average of nearly 13.6 million barrels per day this year. For 2027, the EIA anticipates a decline in production of around 340,000 barrels per day. According to the forecast, production reached a record high of 13.89 million barrels per day in November 2025."

"By the end of this year, production is expected to fall to 13.52 million barrels per day and by the end of next year to 13.16 million barrels per day. The EIA attributes this to declining drilling activity as a result of lower Oil prices. The EIA expects the average WTI Oil price to be USD 52 per barrel this year and USD 50 per barrel next year."

"This is the result of the considerable oversupply on the Oil market, which the EIA estimates will amount to 2.8 million barrels per day this year. For next year, the EIA expects a slightly stronger increase in Oil demand, which, together with declining US Oil production, should reduce the oversupply somewhat."