EUR/USD has struggled to find a catalyst for a big break higher – i.e., above 1.180 – despite some accumulation of negative US news. The bar to sell dollars appears higher, and the euro is lacking a highly compelling idiosyncratic story, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

ECB is fine where it is with rates

"We could see the pair continuing to stall around current levels, even though the balance of risks remains on the upside due to the US shutdown and potentially dovish Fed minutes. We see a good chance of the pair hovering in the 1.168-1.176 range in the coming days."

"Don’t expect much data input from the eurozone this week. ECB speakers will attract more interest, starting with today’s speech by President Christine Lagarde. However, recent inflation figures have simply confirmed that the ECB is fine where it is with rates – so we don’t expect to hear anything new on policy guidance."