The Canadian Dollar (CAD) started 2026 at its strongest level against the USD since 2024, driven by rising commodity prices and a reversal in speculative positioning. National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms expect CAD appreciation to begin in H2 2026, contingent on constructive trade discussions with the U.S. and a supportive fiscal backdrop, projecting USD/CAD to converge toward 1.31 by year-end 2026.

Loonie shows strength amid commodity gains

"However, that boost has limits if CUSMA negotiations remain bogged down."

"At this stage, we still see scope for CAD appreciation beginning in H2 2026, contingent on more constructive trade discussions between Washington and Ottawa and a supportive fiscal backdrop."

"Under those conditions, we would expect USD/CAD to converge toward 1.31 by year-end 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)