ABN AMRO’s Group Economics expects China’s January CPI to fall back versus late 2025 due to base effects and Lunar New Year timing. The consensus expectation is for average CPI inflation to rise to 0.9% for the year, while the annual decline in producer prices is expected to ease due to rising commodity prices.

CPI and PPI point to mild reflation

"Consensus expectation including ours is for CPI inflation (Wednesday) to have fallen back in January compared to end-2025, mainly driven by base effects from a year earlier and different timings of the Lunar New Year break."

"We expect average CPI inflation to rise to 0.9% this year (2025: 0.1%), although remaining low. Meanwhile, the annual decline in produces prices is expected to have eased further in January, partly on the back of rising commodity prices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)