China’s November crude imports surged to 12.4 mb/d, well above domestic needs and the strongest pace since August 2023. Much of the increase appears tied to renewed stockpiling, with Kpler estimating a 21 million-barrel build ahead of fresh processing and production data next week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Annual imports on track for new record

"China imported large quantities of Crude Oil in November, significantly exceeding its own needs. According to customs data, imports last month amounted to 50.89 million tons, or 12.4 million barrels per day. This was 5% more than in the previous year and 9% more than in the previous month."

"The import volume in November was also the highest in a single month since August 2023 on a daily basis. Imports totaled 522 million tons in the first eleven months of the year. That was a good 3% more than in the same period last year. If imports in December reach the same level as last year, imports for the year as a whole are likely to exceed the record level of two years ago."

"A significant portion of the higher imports is likely to have gone into stockpiling also in November. Kpler estimates stockpiling at 21 million barrels, which would be consistent with the implied build-up in October based on Crude Oil processing, Crude Oil production, and Crude Oil import data. Processing and production data will be released by the National Statistics Office early next week."