The two-year swap rate gap widened in favor of the Dollar, impacting the short-term fair value estimate for EUR/USD. Technical supports are identified near the 50-day moving average. Political stability in France is noted, but its impact on FX remains marginal, notes Francesco Pesole from ING.

Technical supports identified for EUR/USD

"The two-year swap rate gap rewidened in favour of the dollar yesterday, bringing our estimate for short-term EUR/USD fair value to 1.174. That is close to the 1.1724 50-day moving average, with the 100 and 200-day MA a bit lower at 1.1678 and 1.1615: those could be the main technical supports should the drop extend."

"Incidentally, the more EUR/USD retraces, the less likely we'll get any comments on the exchange rate at Thursday’s ECB policy meeting."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)