RBA’s Bullock: Inflation pulse is too strong

Key quotes

Inflation pulse is too strong.

It will now take longer for inflation to return to the target.

And this is no longer an acceptable outcome.

We cannot allow inflation to get away from us again.

Will not give forward guidance, board will remain focused on data.

Concerned this high level of inflation could get entrenched.

Did not discuss 50 bps rate rise.

Policy will not be driven by market.

Board does not have particular path in mind for rates.

Board will be cautious on rates.

Trying to bring inflation down while keeping near full employment.

Seeing some tightening in financial condtions through the A$.

Economy actually is in a good position, but supply constrained.

Not my job to tell government what to do with fiscal policy.

A$ is part of policy transimission mechanism.

Rising A$ is helpful at the margin.

Do not know if this will be a tightening cycle.

Can't rule anything out or in.

Board will be very actively monitoring data.

Quarterly inflation numbers are going to have to come down.

Market reaction

AUD/USD is holding higher ground above 0.7000 on the above comments, adding 1% on the day, as of writing.

RBA FAQs

What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.