Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note that risk appetite improved, but rate expectations turned less dovish, which is broadly supportive for the Dollar Index. They highlight that the odds of a Federal Reserve cut by June fell below 50% as core PCE returned to 3.0%, pushing US Treasury yields higher. The report also flags a soft 5-year auction as another sign of shifting US rates dynamics.

June cut odds fall below 50%

"Still, the growing optimism on the near-term outlook (and diminishing fears of mass unemployment) led to a clear risk-on move for several asset classes."

"A notable feature yesterday was that investors kept dialling back the likelihood of an H1 rate cut."

"The odds of a cut by the June meeting (the first with a new Chair) fell beneath 50% for the first time this year to end the day at 48%, suggesting more doubt about an immediate rate cut by Kevin Warsh, particularly now core PCE is back to 3.0%."

"And with investors pricing out rate cuts, that meant US Treasuries struggled across the curve."

"So the 2yr yield (+0.9bps) was up to 3.47%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.3bps) rose to 4.05%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)