Danske Research Team has shifted its Federal Reserve call, now expecting two 25 bp rate cuts in June and September instead of March and June. They then see the policy rate held at 3.00–3.25% through 2026–2027. The analysts argue that cooling wages, housing inflation and consumption risks support a summer easing restart.

Rate cut timing revised to June start

"This morning for the US, we slightly adjusted our Fed call and now see two more 25bp rate cuts in June and September (prev. March and June)."

"We then expect the Fed to maintain the terminal rate at 3.00-3.25% through the rest of 2026 and 2027."

"While last week's strong January jobs report alleviated the need for near-term policy easing, we still see a good case for the Fed resuming rate cuts in summer."

"Cooling wage growth and housing inflation as well as the risk of private consumption surprising negative are likely to tilt the balance towards a cut, when Kevin Warsh has his first meeting as the Fed chair in June."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)