- EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1770 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- US Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% MoM last month, stronger than expected.
- Traders brace for the FOMC Minutes on Tuesday for fresh impetus.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1770 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders continue to price in the prospect of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, following the 25-basis-point rate reduction delivered at the December meeting. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. The economic calendar is thin in most markets ahead of the New Year holiday.
Data released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday showed that the US Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% MoM in November after an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in October. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 1.0% and registered its highest level since February 2023.
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December policy meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. The US central bank delivered a cumulative 75 bps of rate cuts in 2025 amidst a cooling labor market and slightly elevated inflation.
Financial markets are pricing in nearly an 18.3% odds that the Fed will reduce the interest rates at its next policy meeting in January, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Firm Fed dovish bets could weigh on the Greenback and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term.
Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady earlier this month and hinted they would likely remain so for some time. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the central bank cannot provide forward guidance on future rate moves due to high uncertainty, emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
