Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps above $4,350 on US-Venezuela tensions

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Gold price rises to near $4,370 in Monday’s early Asian session.
Geopolitical tensions and Fed rate cut bets boost the Gold price.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is due later on Monday, ahead of the highly anticipated NFP data.

Gold price (XAU/USD) climbs to around $4,370 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends its upside amid a renewed surge in geopolitical risk after the United States' (US) capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the US seizure of Maduro and await the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data later on Monday.

CNN reported over the weekend that the US President Donald Trump administration called a “large-scale strike against Venezuela” and captured its President Maduro to face charges. This action came without the approval of Congress. Trump added that the US will be running Venezuela until it can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.

On Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US will use leverage over oil to force further change in Venezuela. The US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tensions in the region and fuel the uncertainty. This, in turn, could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold.

The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed that most US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials saw further interest-rate reductions as appropriate so long as inflation declines over time, though they remained divided over when and how far to cut. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.

The release of the US December employment report will be in the spotlight later on Friday. The market consensus forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is for a gain of 57,000 jobs. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.