2026 GDP forecasts now point to 2.1% growth in the US and 1.2% in the Eurozone, up from earlier estimates, yet the dollar has stabilized rather than rallied. In Europe, modest growth upgrades have coincided with lower expectations for ECB rate cuts, reflecting a shift in policy rhetoric rather than fundamentals alone, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

ECB rate cut bets erode on upgraded Eurozone growth

"Current 2026 consensus forecasts look for GDP growth to come in at 2.1% in the US and 1.2% in the Eurozone. Back in April, as the dollar was sliding, the forecasts were 1.2% for the Eurozone and 1.4% in the US."

"The upward adjustment in US growth expectations has seen the dollar stabilize rather than rally, because the market hasn’t shifted rate differentials. Market pricing of end-2026 Fed Funds has remained at 3% as growth forecasts have risen in recent months."

"By contrast, a modest upgrade in European growth expectations (from 1.1% to 1.2%) has been accompanied by a gradual erosion in ECB rate cut expectations, fuelled in large part by ECB rhetoric."