China’s Trade Balance: Surplus narrows in October as Exports shrink

Market reaction to China’s Trade Balance

AUD/USD extends losses around 0.6473 in an immediate reaction to the Chinese trade data. The pair is down 0.09% on the day, as of writing.

Australian Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.25%	0.25%	-0.61%	0.99%	1.28%	2.12%	0.68%
EUR	-0.25%		-0.00%	-0.87%	0.75%	1.01%	1.87%	0.43%
GBP	-0.25%	0.00%		-0.84%	0.75%	1.00%	1.88%	0.43%
JPY	0.61%	0.87%	0.84%		1.56%	1.86%	2.72%	1.24%
CAD	-0.99%	-0.75%	-0.75%	-1.56%		0.22%	1.13%	-0.31%
AUD	-1.28%	-1.01%	-1.00%	-1.86%	-0.22%		0.85%	-0.56%
NZD	-2.12%	-1.87%	-1.88%	-2.72%	-1.13%	-0.85%		-1.42%
CHF	-0.68%	-0.43%	-0.43%	-1.24%	0.31%	0.56%	1.42%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

This section was published on Friday at 3:00 GMT as a preview of China's Trade Balance data.

China’s Trade Balance Overview

The General Administration of Customs will publish its data for October on Friday at 03.00 GMT. Trade balance is expected to widen to $95.60B in October, compared to $90.45 in the previous reading. Exports are expected to rise by 3%, while Imports are projected to climb by 3.2%.

As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market.

How could the China’s Trade Balance affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD trades on a positive note on the day in the lead up to the China’s Trade Balance data. The pair edges higher as the US Dollar (USD) softens after data showed weakness in the US labor market, increasing expectations of another rate cut this year.

If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6525. The next resistance level emerges at the September 1 high of 0.6560, en route to the October 6 high of 0.6620.

To the downside, the October 10 low of 0.6472 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the July 31 low of 0.6424, followed by the 0.6400 psychological level.

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.