Nordea’s Kristian Nummelin highlights that the Chinese yuan has been the best-performing Asian currency this year, appreciating against both the Dollar and the Euro despite widening US–China yield spreads. The People’s Bank of China appears comfortable with a stronger yuan, and Nordea expects gradual appreciation versus the Dollar to continue, supported by a large current account surplus and potential policy tolerance.

Policy tolerance for stronger yuan

"The Chinese yuan has performed well this year, both against the US dollar and the euro."

"The US-China rate differential is an important driver of USD/CNY."

"Since the Iran conflict began, US yields have moved higher, widening the yield spread versus China."

"Yet, USD/CNY has continued to trend lower, indicating that appreciation pressure appears persistent."

"The People’s Bank of China is not pushing back against the strengthening pressure, and the daily fixings suggest that further appreciation is tolerable for policymakers."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)