USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls retain control above 1.3800 as fresh breakout comes into play

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The USD/CAD pair prolongs its weekly uptrend for the fourth successive day and climbs to over a two-month high during the early European session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3820 region, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further.

USD/CAD scales higher for the fourth straight day as hawkish Fed bets continue to benefit the USD.
A further rise in Crude Oil prices underpins the Loonie and might cap the upside for the currency pair.
A breakout above the 50% Fibo. and the 200-day EMA backs the case for additional near-term gains.

Persistent geopolitical uncertainties continue to benefit the US Dollar's (USD) status as the global reserve currency. Moreover, elevated energy prices have been fueling inflation concerns and bolstering bets for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), which turns out to be another factor supporting the buck and the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, some follow-through rise in Crude Oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and might cap gains for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, a breakout through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January downfall and a subsequent move beyond the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is seen as a key trigger for the USD/CAD bulls. Moreover, the momentum tone is supportive, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the signal line in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram.

Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67 reflects firm upside pressure and stays below overbought, validating the near-term positive outlook for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, initial resistance aligns with the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level at 1.3882 ahead of the 78.6% Fibo. level at 1.3990, framing the next upside targets if buyers extend control.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 50% retracement at 1.3806, with a break lower exposing the 38.2% level at 1.3729, where prior reaction highs add weight. Below that, the 23.6% retracement at 1.3635 marks a deeper pullback level that would dent the current bullish tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/CAD daily chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.05%	-0.00%	-0.10%	0.06%	-0.06%	0.14%	0.05%
EUR	0.05%		0.05%	-0.06%	0.11%	-0.00%	0.20%	0.10%
GBP	0.00%	-0.05%		-0.09%	0.06%	-0.05%	0.14%	0.05%
JPY	0.10%	0.06%	0.09%		0.15%	0.04%	0.22%	0.14%
CAD	-0.06%	-0.11%	-0.06%	-0.15%		-0.11%	0.08%	-0.01%
AUD	0.06%	0.00%	0.05%	-0.04%	0.11%		0.20%	0.13%
NZD	-0.14%	-0.20%	-0.14%	-0.22%	-0.08%	-0.20%		-0.10%
CHF	-0.05%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.14%	0.01%	-0.13%	0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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