EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Declines to near 183.50 on heightened Gulf tensions, bullish vibe prevails

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The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to near 183.55 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by safe-haven flows.

EUR/JPY softens to around 183.55 in Thursday’s early European session.
Iran escalates attacks on infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf, boosting the Japanese Yen.
Bullish tone for the cross remains intact, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid neutral RSI momentum.
The initial support level is located at 183.10; the immediate resistance to watch is 184.90.

The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to near 183.55 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by safe-haven flows. NBC News reported that Iran has launched its “most intense operation since the beginning of the war,” firing some of its most advanced ballistic missiles toward Tel Aviv and Haifa in Israel. Oman has evacuated all vessels from its key oil export terminal at Mina Al Fahal as a precautionary measure.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and fears of a prolonged war could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY) and creating a headwind for the cross.

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that new quarterly forecasts will partly incorporate the economic impact of the war in Iran. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated that a rate hike may be closer than thought, and the central bank could act if the war raises inflation expectations.

Traders have increased pricing for ECB rate hikes after hawkish comments from central bank members. Swaps pricing indicates markets expect the ECB to tighten monetary policy faster than previously thought. The European Central Bank is now seen hiking as soon as June, according to LSEG data.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds well above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 181.40, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent pause under the upper Bollinger Band. The pair has retreated from the upper band area, but price still rides the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, indicating sustained demand rather than a full loss of momentum. The RSI at 51 shows balanced conditions after unwinding overbought pressures seen in early February, suggesting consolidation within an ongoing upward structure rather than a completed top.

Immediate support emerges at the mid-Bollinger band and recent congestion zone around 183.10, with a break exposing stronger downside protection near 182.10, where the lower band begins to steepen above the 100-day EMA. Below that, the 181.40 region aligns with the long-term average and marks pivotal trend support. On the topside, initial resistance stands near 184.90, defined by the recent upper Bollinger Band cap, followed by the February high in the 185.70 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.