Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: US Nonfarm Payrolls climb to 165K in October as BTC tests $75K and XAU falls

• Following a test of psychological support at $75,000, Bitcoin trades close to $76,000 on Friday.
• Having reached highs near $4,147, Gold retreats below $4,050 and gives back part of its weekly advance.
• October US Nonfarm Payrolls climbed to 165K, comfortably outstripping the market forecast of 65K.

A 0.98% decline on Friday leaves Bitcoin (BTC) near $76,000, with its losses since Monday approaching 4%. Both the leading cryptocurrency and Gold (XAU/USD) are trading lower as the bearish market outlook strengthens. The metal has slipped beneath $4,050, well below its weekly peak of $4,147.

Gains made by Bitcoin early in the week after the United States (US) midterm elections have been pared by the subsequent pullback. With the Democratic Party set to take control of Congress in January, market participants are increasingly concerned about possible regulatory obstacles.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: “Elizabeth Warren, one of the industry’s most vocal critics, is expected to take over the Senate Banking Committee when the new Congress convenes in January, although the appointment has not yet been formally confirmed,” adding, “Warren has consistently advocated for tighter oversight of crypto, potentially making the path toward regulatory clarity longer and more restrictive than the industry had hoped.”

US Nonfarm Payrolls deliver October increase

An October increase of 165,000 in US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) substantially exceeded the consensus forecast of 65,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. The figures point to economic resilience despite continuing price pressures and other macroeconomic concerns.

September’s payroll increase was revised upwards from 29,000 to 60,000, preceding October’s NFP reading.

Over the period, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the labour force participation rate edged up from 61.8% to 61.9%. Growth in Average Hourly Earnings, the measure of annual wage inflation, eased from a revised 3.2% to 3.1%.

Following the NFP release, Gold has continued to decline, while Bitcoin’s downtrend shows signs of persisting into the weekend. Before entering positions in anticipation of a recovery, bullish traders will assess how the assets respond at their respective key support levels of $75,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Gold.

Crypto Finance also said: “Near term, the market still needs to find its footing, but our medium-term view remains unchanged. The themes that showed real adoption before the sell-off remain the ones to watch, and further weakness may ultimately create better opportunities in the parts of the market where activity and conviction persist,”

Technical analysis: Bitcoin sellers strengthen their hold

At $76,006, Bitcoin remains below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the short-term outlook bearish. Initial resistance above the current price comes from the 200-day EMA at $76,508. Further up lie the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the Bollinger Bands’ midpoint at $79,770, followed by the 50-day EMA at $79,833, which adds to overhead selling pressure.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 38 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, momentum remains subdued. These readings indicate that downward pressure continues despite the recent consolidation.

The lower Bollinger band at $75,130 provides immediate support, and a test of this level could attract dip buyers. A daily close above the 200-day EMA at $76,508 would offer the first indication that bearish pressure is easing. A further rebound through the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the Bollinger midpoint at $79,770 would then be required to clear a route towards the 50-day EMA at $79,833. The broader resistance zone near $84,409 would come into contention only after a sustained break above that cluster.

Technical analysis: Gold pares its advance amid continued selling

Trading at $4,048, Gold faces a concentration of moving-average resistance overhead: the 50-day EMA at $4,154, the 100-day EMA at $4,234 and the 200-day EMA at $4,260. Despite the positive momentum that carried prices to highs near $4,147 on Thursday, this configuration leaves the near-term outlook bearish.

Although the MACD has moved into positive territory and the RSI stands near 47, the price remains beneath the middle Bollinger band at $4,066. These structural barriers suggest that any attempted recovery is likely to face a ceiling.

The middle Bollinger band near $4,066 marks the first resistance level, with the 50-day EMA at $4,154 next in line. Beyond it, the 100-day EMA and upper Bollinger band coincide at $4,234, creating a tight resistance cluster. Higher levels to watch are the more strategically significant 200-day EMA at $4,260 and the descending trendline break level at $4,346. Below the market, the lower Bollinger band at $3,898 provides the next significant support; a break beneath it would likely leave prices vulnerable to further declines within the broader bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)