Bitcoin remains rangebound between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand stays weak

• The $77,000-$80,000 support zone is attracting passive buying, leaving Bitcoin’s recovery exposed to fresh selling, with resistance near $81,300, according to Bitfinex.
• A 12.1% rise in Bitcoin futures open interest to 694,728 BTC, alongside a 5.3% price fall, points to increasing derivatives exposure.
• An improved Bitcoin outlook requires a recovery above $80,000 backed by spot demand and ETF inflows, Wintermute warned.

The $77,000 to $80,000 range could continue to contain Bitcoin (BTC) in the near term, according to crypto exchange Bitfinex. With spot demand still subdued, advances towards $81,300 are likely to encounter selling pressure.

Bitcoin Recovery Meets Resistance Near $81K

Investors have accumulated roughly 1.05 million BTC in the $77,000 to $80,000 support zone, compared with 738,000 BTC on 28 October, the exchange’s analysts said in Bitfinex Alpha’s Tuesday report. This zone continues to constrain Bitcoin’s immediate price prospects. Much of the buying within it appears passive, however, with resting bids absorbing sell orders rather than buyers taking the initiative, leaving Bitcoin exposed to further selling pressure.

Bitfinex described the activity as follows: “The current buying we are seeing inside the $77-80,000 band is passive, not aggressive,”

Further advances could be capped at $81,300, the next major obstacle, as investors seeking to close their positions may sell at that level.

Continued volatility is also signalled by the options market. Implied price moves point to a possible $74,400 to $81,750 trading range through the 6 November expiry.

Capital has nevertheless continued to flow into Bitcoin derivatives despite the recent fall in the leading cryptocurrency.

By 31 October, total futures open interest had reached 694,728 BTC, a 12.1% increase from the 12 October low, while Bitcoin’s price had declined 5.3%. Funding rates stayed positive too, rising to annualised levels of 17% on some major perpetual futures exchanges during the 30 October sell-off. In Bitfinex’s view, this indicates that leveraged traders were still positioning for a rebound even as prices weakened.

Spot demand, by contrast, has lagged. On 30 October, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered outflows of $643.2 million, the biggest daily withdrawal since 25 June.

Following combined inflows of $6.36 billion in July, August and September, those withdrawals left October as the first month to record net ETF outflows since June.

Without sustained, aggressive spot-market buying, Bitcoin’s recovery could remain at a standstill, Bitfinex cautioned.

Bitcoin Must Regain $80K to Strengthen Outlook

A return above $80,000 that Bitcoin can sustain is still a central requirement for a better near-term outlook, according to trading firm Wintermute’s Tuesday report.

With little evidence that fresh capital is arriving via spot markets to support the recent bounce, the firm retained its cautious stance.

Wintermute explained its position: "We would stop being short-term cautious if Bitcoin reclaims $80K and holds it with the bid coming from spot and ETF flow,"

The next key support lies at Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, near $76,800, the firm said. Downside risks would rise if the price remained below that level after a break.

Continued pressure on the market follows the $6.3 billion Binance hack late on Thursday, Wintermute added. Roughly $1.5 billion of liquidations resulted from the incident, with leveraged long positions accounting for around 85%.

Initial buying of the dip was concentrated in perpetual futures rather than spot markets, according to Wintermute, leaving the rebound short of sufficient fresh spot demand.

The firm also noted: “Bitcoin has lost [the] $80K level. And while not for the macro reasons we flagged, the market still feels heavy post the $1.5b liquidation on the back of Binance last week,”

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $77,660, a gain of 0.2% over the past 24 hours.