Ripple Price Forecast: XRP recovery lacks momentum as bulls defend $1.00 support
- XRP buyers defend the $1.00 support despite limited upside.
- Muted ETF demand offsets steady perpetual futures Open Interest, which averages 2.66 billion XRP.
- XRP clings to a weak technical structure, defined by downward-sloping major moving averages.
Ripple (XRP) maintains a bearish outlook while trading above its immediate $1.00 support on Thursday. The remittance token has sustained a steady decline from the July high of $1.18, underpinning reduced demand and the lack of catalysts to sustain recovery.
Holding above the $1.00 demand area remains critical to XRP’s recovery. Otherwise, a sell-off could ensue amid buyer exhaustion, driving losses far below the $1.00 region.
XRP consolidates amid muted ETF activity
US-listed XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) remain lackluster amid persistently muted trading activity from last Friday through Wednesday. The absence of institutional engagement highlights the entrenched bearish sentiment weighing on the broader crypto market and tempers expectations for a near-term recovery.
Despite this, cumulative inflows hold steady at $1.51 billion and assets under management total $939 million, signaling continued long-term confidence in XRP.
Retail appetite holds steady in the derivatives market, with perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averaging 2.66 billion XRP on Thursday, down only marginally from 2.67 billion XRP the day before. Despite retail gradually increasing from 2.12 billion XRP on August 12, it has not been enough to offset the sell-off in the broader XRP market. Still, sustained demand in the derivatives market suggests retail investors uphold XRP’s positive long-term prospects.
Technical analysis: XRP holds key support
XRP trades above $1.00, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price remains below the short, medium, and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the SuperTrend line. Momentum indicators back this stance, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator below zero and its signal line on the daily chart showing a negative, slightly contracting histogram, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36, hovering near oversold territory and hinting that sellers still dominate.
Immediate resistance is clustered in the $1.09 area, where the 50-day EMA at $1.09 aligns closely with the SuperTrend barrier at $1.09. A daily close above this zone would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure. Further up, the 100-day EMA at $1.17 marks the next hurdle before the more decisive structural ceiling at the 200-day EMA near $1.36, which defines the upper boundary of the medium-term trend and would only come into play if bulls reclaim and sustain levels well above the $1.10 handle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
