Ripple Price Forecast: XRP's slow grind near $1.00 raises risk of deeper sell-off
- XRP hovers marginally above the crucial $1.00 support as headwinds persist.
- Institutional demand remains muted amid subdued ETF activity, while perpetual futures Open Interest rises to 2.74 billion XRP.
- XRP’s recovery outlook deteriorates further as momentum indicators weaken and major moving averages decline.
Ripple (XRP) continues to lose momentum on Tuesday, as bears tighten their grip. The drop toward $1.00 aligns with lethargic sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market. A daily close below that critical demand area could deepen the sell-off, narrowing XRP’s recovery potential.
XRP falters amid muted ETF activity
US-listed XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to underperform, with muted trading activity persisting through Friday and Monday. The ongoing lack of institutional participation underscores prevailing bearish sentiment across the crypto sector, diminishing prospects for a sustained recovery. However, cumulative inflows remain stable at $1.51 billion, while assets under management stand at $950 million.
Sentiment is embedded in the Fear territory of the crypto Fear & Greed Index on Tuesday. The index holds at 29 following a marginal decline from 30 the day before. Fear sentiment implies that risk-on sentiment is subdued, primarily due to geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and the lack of catalysts to sustain recovery.
Still, activity in the derivatives market is regaining traction as reflected in the perpetual futures Open Interest (OI), rising to 2.74 billion XRP on Tuesday, from 2.62 billion XRP the previous day.
Looking back, OI averaged 2.12 billion XRP on August 5, a 23% increase. If sustained, rising demand for XRP derivatives will anchor a sustained trend reversal above the key $1.00 level.
Technical analysis: XRP at risk of falling below $1.00
XRP trades at $1.01, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds decisively below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Moving Average Exponential (EMA) lines. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a negative histogram, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent selling pressure rather than an imminent recovery.
Immediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA clustered near $1.10, followed by the 100-day EMA around $1.18 and then the 200-day EMA near $1.37, which together define a dense overhead supply zone that XRP would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish tone. The downside remains vulnerable at $1.00, and any bounce while price stays below these EMA barriers would likely be treated as a corrective move within the prevailing downtrend rather than the start of a sustained bullish phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
