Silver Price Forecast: US CPI beat pushes XAG/USD lower

Above-forecast US inflation boosts the US Dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on Silver.
Expectations of additional interest rate rises firm as Fed officials strike a hawkish tone.
With XAG/USD below its 21-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs, the outlook remains bearish.

Higher-than-forecast US inflation is driving the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields upwards on Tuesday, leaving Silver (XAG/USD) facing pronounced selling pressure. XAG/USD stands at around $51.23 at the time of writing, a decline of 3.97% on the day.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

October’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% MoM, surpassing the 0.3% forecast while slowing from September’s 0.6% rise. Excluding food and energy, core CPI advanced 0.3%, above expectations of 0.2% and unchanged from September’s pace.

Hawkish remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan added to the pressure. She said the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs “at least two more 25-basis-point (bps) rate increases” and that it “may be possible to move more rapidly this winter.” Ahead of the data, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said December may require a half-point rate rise if October core CPI registers “around 0.3% or higher.”

Traders now assign an 89.2% probability to a 25-bps rate rise in December, against a 10.8% chance of a larger 50-bps move, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Silver continues to face pressure from expectations of additional Fed tightening: higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no yield. The metal’s appeal to investors is also diminished by higher US Treasury yields and a firmer US Dollar.

XAG/USD retains a bearish technical bias

Trading beneath the 21-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), XAG/USD retains a distinctly bearish bias on the daily chart. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 38 points to continued weakness. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has edged into positive territory, this suggests a tentative stabilisation attempt rather than an established bullish reversal.

The horizontal level near $50 provides the nearest downside support, ahead of the year-to-date low at $48.62. Should that low give way, further losses could follow.

Any recovery initially faces the 21-day SMA around $54, with the horizontal barrier at $55 next in line. Further resistance comes from the 100-day SMA at $60.50, then the higher horizontal level at $65 and the longer-term 200-day SMA near $68.60. Together, these levels form a broad overhead supply zone; regaining it would be necessary to relieve the prevailing bearish pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)

US Dollar Posts Its Strongest Gain Against Australian Dollar Today

Today’s percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed are set out below. Its strongest performance was against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.64%	0.87%	0.57%	0.54%	1.16%	0.79%	0.86%
EUR	-0.64%		0.22%	-0.05%	-0.09%	0.51%	0.15%	0.22%
GBP	-0.87%	-0.22%		-0.30%	-0.31%	0.29%	-0.08%	-0.00%
JPY	-0.57%	0.05%	0.30%		-0.04%	0.57%	0.20%	0.28%
CAD	-0.54%	0.09%	0.31%	0.04%		0.61%	0.24%	0.31%
AUD	-1.16%	-0.51%	-0.29%	-0.57%	-0.61%		-0.37%	-0.29%
NZD	-0.79%	-0.15%	0.08%	-0.20%	-0.24%	0.37%		0.08%
CHF	-0.86%	-0.22%	0.00%	-0.28%	-0.31%	0.29%	-0.08%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.