Solana Price Forecast: Growing downside risk pushes SOL below $92

• With losses exceeding 3.5% so far this week, Solana trades below $92 on Wednesday as its correction continues.
• SOL's recovery remains constrained by subdued ETF demand, a build-up in short positions and increasingly overheated market conditions.
• As the technical picture weakens, SOL remains exposed to a deeper correction and further downside risk.

A decline of more than 3.5% so far this week has left Solana (SOL) trading below $92 on Wednesday, with the token still under pressure. Recovery attempts remain constrained as subdued demand for US-listed spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a build-up in short positions and overheated market conditions weigh on sentiment. Adding to that pressure, a weakening technical picture signals further downside risks and leaves SOL exposed to a deeper correction.

Solana’s recovery stalls as market metrics weaken

Losses of over 3.5% so far this week took Solana below $92 on Wednesday, putting the token on course for a sixth consecutive weekly decline since late September.

Following last week’s largest weekly withdrawals since launch, activity in SOL’s spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been largely muted so far this week, according to SoSoValue data. The figures suggest that meaningful institutional demand for the token is lacking, leaving falling SOL prices without a cushion from ETF demand.

In derivatives markets, SOL’s long-to-short ratio stood at 0.92 on Wednesday, according to CoinGlass, close to its lowest reading in over a month. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, reflecting traders’ bets on lower asset prices.

A similarly cautious picture emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and sell-side dominance are evident in both SOL’s spot and futures markets, while the spot market also displays signs of overheating. Together, these conditions point to a cautious, bearish bias among Solana traders that continues to constrain the recovery.

Solana technical outlook: Bulls lose momentum

At $91.26 on Wednesday, Solana remains below its key exponential moving averages (EMAs), preserving a bearish near-term bias. Layered resistance comes from the 50-day EMA at $102.78, the 100-day EMA at $99.61 and the 200-day EMA at $98.39, indicating that the recent decline remains intact. 

Weak momentum readings also underline the prevailing downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 26 in oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains firmly below zero, even as market conditions begin to appear stretched.

Any recovery would first encounter horizontal resistance around $97.76, with the 200-day EMA at $98.39 and the 100-day EMA at $99.61 next in view. Beyond those levels, the 50-day EMA at $102.78 presents a firmer barrier before the higher horizontal level of $122.76.

For a further decline, the current price area provides the immediate reference point. The earlier rising trendline dynamics now point back towards the break zone around $88.80, followed by more substantial horizontal support near $78.35. Buyers would be expected to show greater interest at that lower level if losses extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)