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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Two-month low puts bullish structure at risk
- From a low of 0.8127, USD/CHF recovers to regain its 100-day SMA at 0.8159.
- Despite a bearish RSI, the pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains unbroken.
- A move beneath 0.8127 would bring 0.8100 into view, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.8000.
A two-month low of 0.8127 was reached earlier in the day as USD/CHF continued to lose ground during the North American session. Traders sold the US Dollar in favour of alternative safe-haven assets, including the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen, leaving the pair trading at 0.8172, down 0.45%.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Structure Retains an Upward Bias
Despite the break of a former support trendline, the market structure retains a neutral-to-bullish bias. Since slipping beneath its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8227 last Monday, USD/CHF has traded in a consolidation range bounded by that level and the 100-day SMA at 0.8159.
Successive higher highs and higher lows continue to define the USD/CHF market structure, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into bearish territory.
A recovery would require buyers to lift USD/CHF beyond the 50-day SMA at 0.8227, potentially opening the way for a return to the 28 October swing high of 0.8313. A break above that peak would put the 14 October high of 0.8395 in focus, with 0.8400 immediately beyond it.
For further downside, sellers would first need to drive USD/CHF beneath the session low of 0.8127. They would then seek a break of 0.8100, paving the way towards the 200-day SMA at 0.8000.
USD/CHF Daily Price Chart
Swiss Franc: Key Questions Answered
As Switzerland’s official currency, the Swiss Franc (CHF) ranks among the world’s ten most actively traded currencies, with trading volumes far exceeding the size of the Swiss economy. Among the factors shaping its value are overall market sentiment, domestic economic conditions and decisions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). From 2011 to 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). When that peg was suddenly abandoned, the Franc appreciated by more than 20%, triggering market turmoil. Although the peg no longer applies, Switzerland’s heavy reliance on the neighbouring Eurozone means CHF movements still tend to be closely correlated with those of the Euro.
Investors tend to seek out the Swiss Franc (CHF) during periods of market strain, giving it the status of a safe-haven asset. That appeal reflects perceptions of Switzerland’s position internationally: its stable economy, strong export industry, substantial central bank reserves and longstanding policy of neutrality in global conflicts make its currency an attractive option for investors seeking to avoid risk. During turbulent periods, CHF is therefore likely to appreciate against currencies regarded as riskier investments.
Monetary policy is set at four Swiss National Bank (SNB) meetings each year, one per quarter, a less frequent schedule than that of other major central banks. The SNB seeks to keep annual inflation below 2%. If inflation exceeds its target, or is expected to do so in the foreseeable future, the bank will try to curb price increases by lifting its policy rate. By increasing yields and making Switzerland more attractive to investors, higher interest rates generally support the Swiss Franc (CHF). Rate reductions, by contrast, tend to put downward pressure on CHF.
Switzerland’s macroeconomic releases help investors assess the economy’s condition and can influence the valuation of the Swiss Franc (CHF). Although the economy is generally stable, abrupt shifts in growth, inflation, the current account or the central bank’s foreign currency reserves can prompt CHF movements. Strong economic growth, low unemployment and robust confidence typically support the currency. Data signalling a loss of economic momentum, on the other hand, is likely to lead to CHF depreciation.
Switzerland’s small, open economy relies heavily on the economic health of its Eurozone neighbours. As the wider European Union is both its principal economic partner and an important political ally, stability in the Eurozone’s macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy is crucial for Switzerland and, in turn, the Swiss Franc (CHF). Reflecting that dependence, some models put the correlation between movements in the Euro (EUR) and CHF at more than 90%, approaching a perfect correlation.
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