WTI maintains gains above $90.00 amid persistent US-Iran tensions, but bullish conviction remains weak

• A second successive day of buying lifts WTI, but further gains remain limited.
• A geopolitical risk premium continues to underpin oil as the US-Iran impasse persists.
• With the key US NFP report approaching, traders also appear reluctant to commit and favour staying on the sidelines.

Trading just above the psychological $90.00 level, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the US crude oil benchmark – is around 0.50% higher on Friday. This marks a second consecutive day of gains, continuing the rebound from $86.00, the lowest level in over two months, reached the day before. Geopolitical uncertainty nevertheless leaves the advance without firm bullish conviction.

The US may have to destroy the rest of Iran, President Donald Trump said on Thursday, adding that people would know soon enough if he took action. Tehran's nuclear programme also remains a point of contention between the US and Iran: Trump said Iran could undertake no activity relating to its nuclear programme without US approval. Although crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered, commercial shipping continues to face threats. Together, these factors sustain the geopolitical risk premium and lend support to crude oil prices.

Expectations of renewed military strikes on Iran by US President Donald Trump have, however, diminished following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. On Wednesday, top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer pledged to seek an end to the Iran war, saying his party could use its control over government funding to pursue that aim. The prospect of a diplomatic settlement to the eight-month-old US-Iran war therefore remains alive. This might discourage bullish traders from taking aggressive positions and limit any substantial rise in crude oil prices.

Weekly losses of around 12% are nonetheless still in prospect for the commodity, whose direction remains dependent on developments in the Middle East crisis. Another potential source of financial market volatility is the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release later in the North American session. The closely watched figures could create short-term trading opportunities in oil.

WTI price action on the daily chart

WTI Retains a Positive Near-Term Technical Bias

Above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.10, WTI's near-term outlook remains constructive. Its recent break above $89.88, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader rise, has established that area as an immediate zone of underlying demand. Resistance next comes at $95.31, the 23.6% Fibo. level. Beyond that lies the cycle high around $104.09, which anchors the retracement and provides a more distant upside target.

Should prices retreat, the first support area is $89.88, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibo. retracement. Further down, the $86.10–$85.49 band brings together the 200-day SMA and the nearby 50% retracement. Buyers would be expected to return in this area if the pullback deepens.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)