Daily Financial Breakfast 10 November 2026: Waller Calls for Rate Hikes While Trump Says Further Iran Strikes Unnecessary

Market News Today: Key Takeaways

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said further rate increases were needed and that a half-point December hike may be necessary if October monthly core inflation reaches 0.3% or higher.
• President Donald Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary, Bloomberg reported, while WTI fell to around $85.30 a barrel amid diplomatic hopes.
• Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli warned of persistent energy-driven inflation risks and declined to rule out a December rate increase.
• All 101 economists in a Reuters poll expected a 25-basis-point December Fed increase, taking the target range to 4.00%-4.25%.
• ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said a December rate increase would be prudent if the data did not change, projecting year-end inflation a little above 4%.
• The Bank of Japan published its October meeting Summary of Opinions, which included a member's view that continued rate increases were appropriate.
• Bank of Mexico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja told El Financiero that the central bank had been considering rate cuts since September.
• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said AI investment was contributing to stronger-than-expected UK economic resilience and warned of bubble risks.
• Ava Labs announced that Avalanche would provide clearing and settlement ledger technology for an NYSE-affiliated tokenized securities platform, subject to regulatory approvals.

Market Developments

Foreign Exchange

The U.S. Dollar Index reversed earlier losses following Waller's remarks and traded around 101.70, up 0.05% on Tuesday. Sterling surrendered early gains and turned negative around $1.3430. In Monday trading, the Australian dollar gained 0.88% to $0.6924.

Energy

Brent fell $4.60 to $93.70 a barrel, its lowest price since September, Rabobank said. WTI traded around $85.30 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, its lowest level since August.

Cryptocurrencies

Avalanche's AVAX token rose 4% on Monday following the announcement of its role in an NYSE-affiliated tokenized securities platform, despite a broader cryptocurrency market decline.

Global Monetary Policy & Geopolitics

Waller Calls for Higher Rates and Flags Conditional Half-Point December Increase

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said monetary policy had been less restrictive than he previously believed and that interest rates needed to rise to bring inflation down, Reuters reported. He said real interest rates had to increase to maintain the degree of policy restraint.

Waller said a half-point December increase may be necessary if October monthly core consumer-price inflation came in around 0.3% or higher. He described inflation pressures as elevated and labour-market conditions as solid. He also said broad-based productivity gains from artificial intelligence were still some way off and that sharp stock-price movements were generally not important to his rate view.

Other Fed officials expressed concern about inflation without offering the same December guidance. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said risks lay on the inflation side of the central bank's mandate and that the policy direction was straightforward, but officials should proceed with care. He described rates as near neutral and said he had no December base case.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said services inflation had accelerated over recent months, complicating the argument that price pressures were attributable only to tariffs. Rabobank characterised the remarks from Barkin and Goolsbee as broadly consistent with a firmer anti-inflation tone across the Fed.

Trump Says Further Iran Strikes Unnecessary as Oil Retreats

President Donald Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary and cited “positive momentum” towards ending the war, Bloomberg reported on Monday. He nevertheless said the United States remained “locked and loaded.”

Oil declined amid hopes for diplomatic progress, although attacks in the Middle East continued. Reporting on Monday's currency and oil trading described progress towards a U.S.-Iran agreement as unconfirmed.

Rabobank also cited Trump's weekend statement that extensive strikes were “highly unlikely” if Iran signed a “very strong agreement.” That condition accompanied the remarks; no completed agreement was announced.

Lombardelli Warns of Upside Inflation Risks and Leaves December Hike Open

Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said the balance of inflation risks remained to the upside as the energy shock became more persistent. Speaking at the Bank of England Watchers' Conference in London on Tuesday, she warned of a greater prospect of second-round effects from high energy costs.

In an interview with the Guardian, Lombardelli separately declined to rule out an interest-rate increase at the December meeting. Her comments described a policy possibility rather than a commitment to raise rates.

Reuters Poll Shows Unanimous Call for Quarter-Point December Fed Hike

All 101 economists surveyed by Reuters between November 6 and November 10 expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, taking the target range to 4.00%-4.25%. The unanimous survey result was an economist consensus, not an announced Fed decision.

Separately, market-implied odds of a December increase reached 82% in Monday trading.

ECB's Lane Says December Hike Prudent Unless Data Shift

European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said a December interest-rate increase would be prudent if incoming data did not change. He projected inflation a little above 4% at year-end and said the inflation peak was still ahead, with core and food inflation set to quicken in his assessment.

Lane described Europe's economic resilience as reassuring. Addressing France's public finances, he said French fiscal problems needed to be resolved in Paris.

BoJ October Opinions Include Support for Continued Rate Increases

The Bank of Japan published the Summary of Opinions from its October monetary-policy meeting. A member said it was appropriate to continue raising interest rates, expressing an individual policy view rather than announcing a new rate decision.

Banxico Governor Says Rate Cuts Have Been Under Consideration Since September

Bank of Mexico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja told El Financiero that the central bank had been considering interest-rate cuts since September. Her comments concerned policy deliberations, rather than an announcement of a rate reduction.

Bailey Says AI Investment Contributes to UK Resilience, Warns of Bubble Risks

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said UK economic activity was proving more resilient than expected, partly because of artificial-intelligence investment, particularly in business services. Speaking at the Swiss Institute of International Studies in Zurich, he also warned of AI-related bubble risks.

Financial Technology & Infrastructure

Avalanche Selected for NYSE-Affiliated Tokenized Securities Clearing

Ava Labs said Avalanche would provide the core ledger technology for clearing and settlement on an NYSE-affiliated digital alternative trading system. The platform is being developed for 24/7 trading, clearing and settlement of tokenized securities, subject to regulatory approvals.

NYSE Head of Digital Issuance Dennis Lee cited speed, reliability, predictable operating costs and network controls as factors behind the selection. The announcement accompanied a broader expansion of NYSE parent ICE's on-chain activities, including partnerships with OKX and Trade[XYZ].

Upcoming Key Events

• U.S. October Consumer Price Index (10 November 2026, 13:30 GMT): The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish October consumer-price inflation data.
• Federal Reserve Interest-Rate Decision (9 December 2026): The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its December interest-rate decision.