Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC slips below $78,000 amid ETF outflows

• Bitcoin slips below $78,000 on Monday after posting its fourth straight weekly loss.
• US-listed BTC spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $202.59 million last week, pointing to weaker institutional demand.
• The fallout from last week’s Binance security breach continues to weigh on market sentiment, limiting BTC’s recovery attempts.

Bitcoin (BTC) slips below $78,000 at the time of writing on Monday after posting its fourth straight weekly loss. Institutional demand shows signs of weakening, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording outflows of over $202 million last week. Adding to this, the fallout from last week’s Binance security breach continues to weigh on traders’ sentiment, limiting the Crypto King’s recovery attempts.

Weakening demand weighs on BTC

Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows weakness. SoSoValue data show BTC spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $202.59 million last week, highlighting waning investor appetite.

Moreover, the monthly chart shows that spot ETFs recorded $515.03 million in net outflows in October, ending a three-month streak of net inflows.

If this outflow trend persists or intensifies, Bitcoin could face further selling pressure and a deeper correction.

Binance security breach continues to weigh on market sentiment

Binance, the biggest centralized cryptocurrency exchange, suffered a major security breach last week on Thursday, with an estimated $6.3 billion stolen across ten blockchains.

On Friday, the exchange said, “It will cover all losses from the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe.” The exchange also said its team was conducting security checks and that withdrawals would resume once the issue was fully resolved.

Binance customers withdrew $3.64 billion, equivalent to 2.1% of the exchange’s assets, as the platform resumed operations on Sunday after hackers the FBI links to North Korea stole billions from the platform, Reuters reported. 

Binance said withdrawals were stabilizing after an initial spike on Sunday while deposit volumes remained “substantial.” The exchange also said it had recovered or secured 95% of the $6.3 billion in stolen assets.

However, concerns remain over the movement of stolen funds. Wu Blockchain confirmed on Monday that the attacker had moved approximately $242 million through Tron-related channels within two days, while more than $3 billion in stolen assets on other blockchains remained largely untouched.

Adding to this, a QCP Capital analyst said that the attacker still holds the stolen Bitcoin and has started splitting it into batches of 1,000 BTC and 100 BTC.

The scale of the breach, substantial customer withdrawals and continued movement of stolen funds have kept investors cautious, limiting Crypto King’s recovery.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Weakening momentum

The Crypto King corrected 2.25% last week, marking the fourth straight negative week since early October. As of the start of this week on Monday, BTC continues to trade down around $77,967 at the time of writing.

If BTC continues its correction, it could extend losses toward the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,597. A weekly close below this level could trigger further losses toward the 200-week SMA at $67,776.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart stands at 51, near the neutral 50 level, suggesting bullish momentum is cooling. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, although its bars are weakening. This suggests broader upside momentum remains intact but is losing strength amid nearby resistance and the ongoing pullback.

On the other hand, if BTC recovers, it could extend the advance toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $78,661 (drawn from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199). If this level holds, BTC could head toward the 50% retracement level of $87,823, then the 100-week SMA at $89,134.

On the daily chart, the Crypto King is holding a mild constructive bias as it remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $77,821 and the 200-day EMA around $76,466. 

However, it is still capped by the 50-day EMA at approximately $80,287, limiting immediate topside follow-through. At the same time, a soft daily RSI near 38 and a negative MACD histogram below zero suggest bullish momentum remains fragile despite the supportive medium-term structure.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 50-day EMA at $80,287, ahead of the more prominent horizontal barrier at $85,000. 

On the downside, the 100-day EMA at $77,821 offers nearby support, with a deeper protective layer at the 200-day EMA around $76,466. A daily close below this level would weaken the current constructive bias and expose a broader corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)