ING’s Chris Turner expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% with no new forecasts and limited guidance, as markets price only modest tightening this year. With the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforming the Australian Dollar (AUD) due to weaker commodity support, he sees the trend persisting unless the RBNZ delivers a hawkish surprise.

RBNZ meeting unlikely to lift New Zealand dollar

"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets to set rates tomorrow. Very little tightening is priced in the first half of the year, with 65bp of hikes priced by the end of the year."

"RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has proved quite dovish in her communication so far, and in the absence of any new RBNZ forecasts tomorrow, consensus widely expects unchanged rates at 2.25% and probably little steer on future tightening."

"Lacking the industrial commodities offered by Australia, the New Zealand dollar has substantially underperformed the Australian dollar this year. Barring a surprise hawkish shift at tomorrow's RBNZ press conference, this trend may well continue."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)