金价预测:非弹性需求的强劲是黄金的关键 - 德意志银行
德意志银行研究分析师迈克尔·许报告称,尽管近年来黄金与风险的正相关性变得更加频繁,黄金作为投资组合多样化工具仍然具有相关性。

德意志银行研究分析师迈克尔·许报告称,尽管近年来黄金与风险的正相关性变得更加频繁,黄金作为投资组合多样化工具仍然具有相关性。

黄金与风险的正相关性并不新鲜

“我们认为,储备管理者可能会在黄金疲软时作为买家入场,尽管ETF投资者在实现波动性仍然较高的情况下可能准备不足。我们的评估是,官方需求的上升是黄金相对于金融公允价值表现优异的主要原因。我们预计这种情况在可预见的未来将继续,支持战略性看涨的偏向,并将我们的明年平均价格预测上调至每盎司4,000美元。”

“此外,黄金价格强度的适度回落可能有助于恢复被压抑的珠宝需求。珠宝需求预计将下降300吨,或比去年减少18%。根据世界黄金协会的说法,与2009-2012年相比,回收黄金的相对低供应也可能上升,因为进一步上涨的预期使消费者不愿意变现。”

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