SpaceX Counterattacked After Being Hunted! Stock price rebounded nearly 40% from its lowest point, short positions plummeted to 11%!
On Wednesday, SpaceX's stock closed up 9.65% at about $146, about 8% higher than its IPO price of $135, and up about 39% from its August 3 low. Since going public, SpaceX's stock price has experienced a rollercoaster ride. Shortly after the company's IPO, its stock price quickly climbed to a historic high, then evaporated over $1 trillion in market value. Last Wednesday, after SpaceX released its first public earnings report since going public, its stock price fell 14% in a single day, mainly due to spending on artificial intelligence that exceeded market expectations. But just two trading days later, market sentiment reversed significantly. Last Friday, SpaceX's stock price rose about 16%, bringing it back close to the IPO price of $135.
SpaceX's rebound is particularly noteworthy as it occurred after the market's biggest concern—the unlocking of restricted shares—was lifted, which is one of the reasons why bears aggressively hunted SpaceX. Last Thursday, about 911.5 million previously restricted shares entered the market, increasing the number of tradable SpaceX shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion, more than doubling the size of outstanding shares. Based on previous market concerns, a large number of new stocks could create significant potential selling
pressure. But judging from the actual trend, the unlocking has actually become the starting point for a rebound in the stock price.
More shares of SpaceX are about to be unlocked. According to the prospectus, there may be another 319 million shares unlocked on August 20, followed by about 700 million shares in September, and a similar scale of stock unlocking in October. The new shares may bring new volatility, as employees and early investors will have more opportunities to sell shares. At the same time, a larger float size makes it easier for investors to establish new short positions when bearish sentiment heats up again.
Regarding the blockade of bears, Musk issued consecutive warnings last month. He stated that institutions that have long been heavily short on SpaceX have extremely low chances of survival. The long-short battle surrounding SpaceX is essentially a disagreement over whether a company that is not yet profitable can support a trillion-dollar valuation.
The rapid rebound in stock price does not mean that market concerns about SpaceX's high valuation have disappeared. As the supply shock from the unlocking gradually absorbs the supply, investors still face a core question: whether the market is willing to continue paying extremely high valuations for SpaceX until its AI, satellite internet, and aerospace businesses fully realize their potential.
Market Insight:
SpaceX is currently betting on multiple growth directions simultaneously, including rocket launches, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure. Whether SpaceX's stock price can continue to break upward depends not only on the growth of existing businesses like Starlink but also on whether the market can see real returns from investing in AI infrastructure.
