Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao note that weaker US non-farm payrolls and reduced Fed rate hike expectations weighed on the Dollar, supporting the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY fell sharply as markets priced a smaller cumulative hike by year-end and speculated about possible FX intervention. The bank expects US key interest rates to stay unchanged in 2026, limiting upside for USD/JPY.

Yen benefits from softer US data

"US job growth in June fell short of expectations. Only 57,000 new jobs were created, and payrolls for the previous two months were revised significantly downward."

"The Fed funds futures are pricing in 30bp hike by year-end compared to 36bp on Wednesday."

"Pressure for an interest rate hike at the Fed meeting in late July continues to ease. We continue to expect US key interest rates to remain unchanged this year."

"The USD weakened, gold rallied, and the yen strengthened on renewed speculation of possible FX intervention."

"In FX, USD/JPY fell sharply by 150 pips to 161.10 on the softer USD and lingering intervention speculation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)