On Monday, spot gold rebounded after briefly testing lower levels earlier in the session. As the United States and Iran completed their first round of high-level talks in Switzerland, uncertainty surrounding the negotiations was effectively removed. The first round of high-level US-Iran talks concluded successfully at the Bürgenstock Resort overlooking Lake Lucerne in Switzerland, with both sides completing discussions despite a tense and friction-filled opening.

With mediation from Qatar and Pakistan, the United States and Iran established a multi-layered negotiation framework, laying out a clear roadmap for reaching a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire agreement within the next 60 days. The US delegation was led by Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff, and presidential adviser Jared Kushner, while the Iranian delegation was headed by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi. On the first day of talks, negotiations briefly stalled after US President Donald Trump issued hardline threats from afar. The Iranian delegation temporarily walked out in protest, fueling market concerns that the entire negotiation process could collapse.

Trump not only publicly warned that Iran should not insist on retaining uranium enrichment rights and threatened severe military action, but also pressured Iran via social media to immediately restrain proxy groups operating in Lebanon. These multiple sources of confrontation introduced significant uncertainty into an already fragile dialogue. However, the official announcement that negotiations had been successfully completed the following day represented a development that exceeded market expectations. Despite the turbulence, mediators Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement confirming that substantial progress had been achieved under a constructive and positive framework, with agreement reached on multiple practical mechanisms.

Regarding the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the world's most critical energy transportation route—the United States and Iran reached a key consensus. The two sides agreed to establish a dedicated communication hotline and a vessel transit protection mechanism to prevent navigational misunderstandings and unexpected incidents, thereby reducing the risk of future disruptions through institutional safeguards. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson also confirmed that the mediators would compile the core agreements reached during the 18-hour negotiations into a formal document. Both sides have now completed the groundwork necessary for final agreement negotiations, and the Swiss talks delivered meaningful progress in terms of implementing mutual commitments.

Following the substantial progress in US-Iran negotiations and the normalization of energy transportation channels, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices has begun to decline. As inflationary pressures ease, markets may increasingly price in expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy stance. Lower real interest rates could, in turn, create additional upside potential for gold.

In the short term, however, Trump’s continued use of confrontational rhetoric and the possibility of setbacks during negotiations could keep gold trading in a wide range, with safe-haven demand providing periodic support. From a longer-term perspective, if the United States and Iran successfully finalize a comprehensive agreement within the 60-day negotiation window, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal and Iranian crude oil exports could steadily re-enter global markets. A lower oil-price environment would reduce global inflationary pressures. Combined with the ongoing structural support provided by central bank gold purchases, this could create the conditions for a sustained valuation recovery in the gold market.

Market Analysis:

Gold rebounded on the 4-hour chart, with both the MACD lines and histogram expanding near the zero line. Going forward, investors should closely monitor three key indicators: progress in the Swiss technical negotiations, oil tanker traffic data through the Strait of Hormuz, and the pace of Iranian crude oil export recovery. These signals will provide important clues regarding the speed at which the Middle East geopolitical risk premium dissipates and may help investors identify critical turning points in the balance between bullish and bearish forces in the gold market.